As snow blanketed areas of Colorado in February, the lack of snowpack, and its impact on the fire season ahead, was the focus for a group of fire experts near Denver.
These employees at the Rocky Mountain Coordination Center, the western division of the federal firefighting effort, pay close attention all year round to the weather patterns in the area.
Wildfires are more likely to occur in the late spring and summer, but the weather and land conditions now play an important role in the months to come. Snowpack has a large influence on how flammable a forest can be.
“When we think of fire, we most likely don’t think of snow, but what happens in the winter has a great impact on what we can expect for fire season,” said Tim Mathewson, fire meteorologist at the center.
The coordination center provides predictions for fire weather and fuels and helps in providing resources in response to emergency situations such as wildfires, earthquakes, and floods. Mathewson has worked at the center, located at the Bureau of Land Management office in Lakewood, since 2001 as a meteorologist, working with different government agencies to recognize signs of disaster before they occur.
“Today it’s snowy outside, but when’s it going to get hotter and drier again? That’s what we’re focused in on,” said Mathewson.
It’s his job to analyze weather patterns to figure out wildfire potential and if there is a fire happening, to look into future weather that may impact the spread of the wildfire.
“This time of year, we’re paying attention to snowpack,” said Mathewson. “We are looking at precipitation in the form of rain or snow, how it compares to average, and how the snowpack compares to average.”
The snowpack has an important role to play when it comes to wildfires. The more snowpack there is, the more moisture is on the ground. The wetter the landscape, the harder it is to generate fires. The less snowpack that occurs in the winter and early spring months, the less moisture there is in the late spring and earlier summer when most fires occur. If the environment is drier, it is easier for a fire to start and to grow bigger and faster. The lack of snowpack allows for fire fuels, such as grasses and logs, to dry out faster. If a fire occurs, it is more likely to spread with these dry fuels in place.
“If the snow comes off early, or earlier than average, you’re exposing those fuels earlier than normal and they have a longer period to dry out,” said Mathewson.
A higher level of snowpack does not always lead to less– chance of fire. While there may be plenty of moisture, if the weather is dry enough and hot enough, there is still a risk for fires to occur. This is why Mathewson must pay attention to weather patterns throughout the entire year. Even though fires are not as common in the winter, he must still pay attention to all aspects of how and why fires start.
“We’re not necessarily in fire season … a lot of these fuels are dormant,” Marco Perea, intelligence coordinator for the center, said, but he warned that the woods can still burn. “You could have a wind event, and we can have fires, which we’ve seen in the past.”
Although fewer wildfires occur during the spring, this is when Mathewson starts to pay closer attention to weather patterns. Moisture, wind, temperature, and humidity all factor into the wildfire equation. If there is a lot of moisture, the fuels won’t burn, but high temperatures and humidity levels can cause wetter fuels to dry out faster.
As temperatures rise in the spring, new plants bloom. This green, moisture-filled vegetation is not good fire fuel and doesn’t burn very well. But as temperatures rise in the spring and through the summer, the vegetation dries out, allowing for fires to spread easier.
In the spring and summer, the team at the center must look ahead to be able to predict and react to weather patterns. During the fire season, it’s important for them to be ahead of the game. Being able to predict thunderstorms, wind events, and other weather patterns could mean saving lives.
Having a forecast and knowing what to expect is important, especially with the weather patterns that can be found in Colorado, according to Mathewson.
“It’s just as important to have an accurate forecast when it’s wet out, as dry out,” said Mathewson.
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, there were a total of 967 reported wildfires in Colorado in 2017. These fires burned across 111,667 acres of land. Research published by the National Academy of Sciences stated that approximately 16 percent of wildfires are ignited by lightning. The Peekaboo Fire, which burned more than 12,000 acres in northwestern Colorado, was ignited by lightning.
During the fire season, it’s important for the team to be able to predict thunderstorms and other weather patterns that could cause fires to start or spread.
To prevent wildfires from spreading into communities, the team at the center must look ahead and predict weather patterns. They’re looking days into the future in order to predict conditions.
“Our decision today is for the betterment for Friday,” said Perea. “We want to make sure we have the best resources in place before the dry lightning comes in. Before the human factor.”
In Colorado, human-caused wildfires make up 84 percent of fires started in the state. Human-caused wildfires can stem from backyard fires, abandoned campfires, tossed cigarettes, and more. Ignited by a cigarette, the Black Tiger fire burned approximately 2,000 acres in Boulder Canyon in 1989.
With a long history of tragic wildfires, the western United States depends on the work of the center, one of several in the western region, in order to be more prepared when the next fire occurs. By looking into historical weather data and comparing it to today’s weather, Mathewson is able to predict weather patterns to ensure that wildfires don’t expand, can be controlled, and so that the fires do not lead to fatalities or lost homes.
“We’re trying to be proactive with fire weather and fuels, and we do that from this level for the Rocky Mountain Center and the national level. We do that for firefighter safety and public safety,” said Mathewson.
Always thinking long term, Mathewson works throughout the year to help protect not just firefighters who battle wildfires but the citizens who could be affected by them. So even though snow covers the ground now, the work Mathewson completes in the winter is just as important as that during the fire season.
